FERTILITY TRENDS AND ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examined the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on fertility in Nigeria using monthly data covering the period from April 2016 to June 2023. The variables considered include fertility rates, EPU, inflation, GDP per capita, secondary school enrollment, and unemployment. The Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was employed to capture the asymmetric short-run and long-run effects of policy uncertainty on fertility trends, while wavelet coherence analysis was utilized to investigate the time-frequency relationship among the variables. The findings revealed that EPU significantly influences fertility decisions, with prolonged uncertainty aligning with sustained declines in fertility rates. Moreover, the study established that GDP per capita, inflation, secondary school enrollment, and unemployment all reduce fertility, reflecting the combined impact of economic constraints, rising living costs, educational attainment, and labor market insecurity on household fertility choices. The study therefore recommends that policymakers ensure stability in economic policies to foster confidence in long-term decision-making among households. In addition, targeted measures should be implemented to curb inflationary pressures, reduce unemployment, and strengthen social protection systems in order to alleviate the economic burden on families. Furthermore, while educational expansion remains critical for human capital development, it should be complemented with comprehensive reproductive health programs to balance the demographic transition process.