IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON FOOD PRICES IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examined impact of COVID-19 pandemic on food prices in Nigeria with a view to assess long-run dynamics between COVID-19 pandemic and food prices. Variables used were Food Price index (FPI), the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the number of confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 illnesses, exchange rate, broad money supply, and agricultural output for the period 2020:M2 to 2021:M12. An Autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, and an ARDL Bound test were used. Findings revealed existence of long-run relationships between food prices and COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. Analysis of short-run estimates showed a negative relationship between COVID-19 pandemic and food prices in the current period, while a one-year lagged value of food prices was positively related to COVID-19 pandemic. Long-run dynamics revealed a positive relationship between food prices and COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. COVID-19 pandemic is negatively related to food prices in Nigeria. Continuous vaccination of the populace, implementation of price control mechanisms during national emergencies, and investment in agricultural infrastructures are crucial for food price stability in Nigeria.